'We’re Killing Ourselves'Nobel Winner Criticizes Terrorist Release Agreement

Nobel Prize-winning economist Yisrael (Robert J.) Aumann, a leading expert in Game Theory, has strongly criticized Israel’s recent prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, describing it as “crazy” and a dangerous incentive for further terrorism. Speaking to JNS at his office at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Aumann did not mince words: “We are literally killing ourselves. We are killing our own children.”

The controversial deal saw 33 Israeli hostages freed in exchange for approximately 1,900 imprisoned terrorists, many of whom were convicted murderers serving multiple life sentences. Aumann, who won the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, emphasized that Game Theory is fundamentally about creating incentives that benefit one's own side something he says Israel has failed to do.

“We keep doing the opposite,” Aumann stated. “We are incentivizing them to attack us again and again, to make war against us, to repeat Oct. 7.” He referenced the horrific Hamas-led massacre of October 7, 2023, which left deep scars on Israeli society.

Aumann pointed out the dangers of releasing terrorists who may return to violence. Estimating a grim scenario, he noted that even if only 25% to 50% of released terrorists carried out successful attacks, the death toll could reach between 250 and 500 Israelis. “That’s at least 250 dead for 33 live hostages,” he calculated.

Beyond the immediate risk, Aumann warned of the long-term consequences: “We’ve shown the enemy that it’s worth it, that we will completely give up and raise a white flag even if you abduct one.”

Aumann proposed a tougher stance: “One prisoner per hostage is the maximum. And if they say it’s out of the question, I would say, ‘Okay, now we wipe you out.’” He argued that a hardline approach would deter future kidnappings and restore Israel’s negotiating position.

Reflecting on past deals, such as the 2011 exchange of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit for 1,027 terrorist prisoners, Aumann stressed that “we are giving them incentives to go and kidnap more and more.”

Aumann also criticized the high-profile campaign by hostages' families, suggesting it raised the price Hamas demanded for hostages. He described the movement as not solely driven by the families but also by “people who are opposed to the government,” some of whom are “opposed to the Zionist enterprise.”

As a game theorist, Aumann drew on the Blackmailer’s Game to explain Israel’s predicament. In this scenario, the rational party often loses to the irrational, a situation he believes Israel must avoid. He called for “a very tough stance, one that will probably simply be rejected by the other side,” emphasizing the need to prioritize national security over emotional appeals.

Aumann’s message is clear: Israel must shift its strategy to avoid encouraging more kidnappings and protect its citizens from future threats.

Stay informed on Israel’s security strategies and expert insights. Share this article or subscribe to our newsletter for more updates.