Petraeus Predicts Limited Iranian Retaliation, Avoids Full-Scale War

Amidst rising tensions over Iran's threats of retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, former CIA Director and US CENTCOM commander David Petraeus has expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a full-scale war breaking out. Despite the strong rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Petraeus believes that neither Iran nor Israel seeks an all-out conflict due to the catastrophic consequences it would entail for both sides.

The assassination of Haniyeh, which occurred in an IRGC guest house and reportedly involved an explosive device planted months prior, represents a significant security and intelligence breach for Iran. This event has been perceived as a blow to Iran's national honor, prompting a response from Tehran. However, Petraeus, in an interview with Iran International, downplayed the prospects of a large-scale military confrontation.

"Iran feels it has to retaliate for the killing of a terror ally on Iranian soil," Petraeus said, acknowledging Iran's likely need to respond to what it perceives as an affront. However, he emphasized that both nations are wary of the severe repercussions of a direct war. "I don’t think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back-and-forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don’t think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran," he added.

Petraeus outlined the potential damage from a full-scale war as "very, very substantial" to both sides, making such a scenario unattractive. Instead, he predicts a series of retaliatory strikes, potentially two waves of attacks. The first could come from Hezbollah in response to the killing of Hezbollah commander Faoud Sukr, followed by Iranian-led actions.

When discussing potential retaliation strategies, Petraeus mentioned that Iran and its proxies have a "whole menu" of options, ranging from targeting military sites to striking critical infrastructure or major ports. If successful, such an attack would likely provoke a massive Israeli response, reminiscent of Israel's reaction to the Houthi drone attack on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen, which resulted in significant damage.

While the situation remains tense, Petraeus’s analysis suggests that both Iran and Israel will seek to manage the conflict strategically, avoiding escalation into a full-scale war. This restraint reflects an understanding of the severe risks involved and a shared interest in maintaining regional stability despite provocations.

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