Israel votes today, and the biggest story of the final hours before the polls opened came from inside the rooms where war decisions are made. Channel 12 reported Sunday that IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir demanded signed authorization for an operation that could trigger fighting with Iran before the election, Ynet reports. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied any confrontation with his top general.
CNN carried more detail on the Channel 12 report. According to that report, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon related to Iran but requested an in-depth discussion and legal authorizations before carrying it out, fearing the action could lead to a miscalculation that could trigger an immediate conflict. Channel 12 called the confrontation "unprecedented" and said it came fewer than 48 hours before Tuesday's vote. Defense Minister Israel Katz said the report was "completely baseless and false."
The IDF put out its own statement. Ynet reports the army insists its decisions are based solely on security and professional considerations. Ynet also reports a separate disagreement over operations in Hebron, where Zamir opposed extending the operation, and says Netanyahu and Katz deny claims they could oust him if they remain in power after the election. At the same time, Iraqi sources suspect Israel struck air-defense systems supplied by Tehran, according to Ynet.
The American side is just as striking. CNN reports that U.S. forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran "within 96 hours of receiving" an order from President Trump, according to two U.S. officials. Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks on Iran, CNN reports, but U.S. officials asked him to delay until the Trump administration is ready for joint operations. An Israeli security source told CNN: "Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light." The Prime Minister's Office called that "fake news."
CNN's Israeli source said one reason the President declined is that Zamir told Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that a strike would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement. Israel appears to have delayed its plans for now and is building up for potential joint operations with the United States, likely after the American midterms, all of CNN's sources said. Israel also needs American support for missile defense, one source added, because its defensive munitions have been strained during the war.
What it means: Israelis cast their ballots today with the Iran question still open. Channel 12 reported that the chief of staff wanted signed authorization before acting, Ynet reports, while the IDF says it weighs only security and professional considerations. Whoever forms the next government inherits that decision, along with Washington's timeline, which CNN's sources say likely runs past the American midterm elections. “Behold, he that keepeth Israel shall neither slumber nor sleep.” (Psalm 121:4)
CNN's reporting gives a sense of the mood in Washington. One U.S. official told CNN, “It will be a big effort,” and other current and former officials familiar with the planning say it is a question of when, not if, President Trump issues a go-order, most likely after the midterms but possibly any time before the end of the year. Officials told CNN the President has not made up his mind and appears to be leaning toward major action, though they add that he has leaned toward action before and backed off at the last moment. A senior Pentagon official said in a statement to CNN that the department's job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President.
CNN also reports that U.S. intelligence assessments expect Iran and the Houthis to retaliate right away against American personnel and facilities in the region if new strikes come, though they are unlikely to strike first. A third source briefed on the matter told CNN that Israel was preparing for possible additional attacks on Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying U.S. officials to support them, before senior American officials, including President Trump, told Israel to hold off. Ynet reports Netanyahu told voters three days before the election that Tehran has revived its nuclear program and called the final stretch a “fateful week.”
