The End of Sinwar and the Need for Israel to Act Against Hezbollah

Yahya Sinwar, the Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau and the architect behind the October 7 massacre, is well aware that his days are numbered. His brutal actions and direct responsibility for the bloodshed have sealed his fate, making him a "dead man walking." Sinwar’s only concern now is to extract as much leverage as possible before his inevitable demise, including a significant withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing, along with guarantees from the U.S. and Israel that he won't be assassinated.

Sinwar's cruelty knows no bounds, and the deaths of his fighters only serve to fuel his false narrative. As the Palestinians leverage global media, particularly Al-Jazeera, to showcase the destruction in Gaza and the casualties among terrorists, Sinwar hides in a tunnel, calculating his next desperate move.

Despite his efforts to widen the conflict, including attempts to ignite an all-out war on Israel's northern front, Sinwar has failed. Israel’s harsh and unexpected response, coupled with the deaths of his closest allies and Iran's apparent reluctance to escalate, has left him frustrated and cornered. Iran, aware of the potential consequences, is deterred by the U.S. military presence in the region, which includes aircraft carriers and submarines—a clear signal that America is not interested in an all-out war, especially with the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, too, is feeling the pressure after the failure of his recent attack on Israel. His exaggerated claims of a "precise" strike reveal his frustration and fear, but they also provide him with an opportunity to deescalate the situation, at least temporarily.

The question now is whether Lebanon can withstand the repercussions of a full-scale war. Wiam Wahhab, Lebanon's former Minister of Environment and a close ally of Hezbollah, has acknowledged that Lebanon could become the next Gaza if hostilities escalate. It’s clear that neither the U.S. nor Iran has any interest in seeing the conflict spiral out of control.

However, Israel cannot remain passive while its civilians and soldiers are killed, homes are destroyed, and its land is set ablaze by Hezbollah’s relentless attacks in the north. With Hezbollah's latest attempt thwarted, Israel cannot afford to wait for the next provocation, whether or not it involves direct Iranian intervention.

The time is ripe for Israel to take decisive action to neutralize the Hezbollah threat. Approximately 70,000 Israeli citizens remain displaced, anxiously awaiting the chance to return to their homes. Israel must demand the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, but with little hope for a diplomatic solution that truly meets Israel's security needs, the likelihood of an Israeli military operation in Lebanon is growing.

If Israel fails to act now, it risks allowing Hezbollah to regroup and strike again, with potentially devastating consequences. The iron is hot, and Israel must strike to secure its northern border and protect its citizens.

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